Spiga

Predictions 2009

Sorry for the dealy in posts. I have been active in markets lately but you can find me chatting up via MIRC at daytraders.org- nick ONmoney =)

As far as lookback, we fell harder and faster then even i expected. I was very bearish since the start of the first Bear Stearns blowup in the Summer of 2007. Lets look forward to some major events that may come out in 2009

1) The currency markets will be the most volatile EVER in the 2009. Media focused on the VIX equity indicators in 2008, the big moves will be in Currency. Active Forex traders should have their hands full.

2) Expect the US goverment to manage the real economy as hard as they managed the banking crisis of 2008. Major infusions of tax capital will try to create obama jobs in 2009. Published unemployment figures should bleed into the 9% level. We cannot have a double digital handle on unemployment or the penguin will reach for the pitchfork.

3) Expect a soverign tier one country to have a debt auction FAILURE in 2009. Take your pick, it might be GP, it might be the United States. Second half 2009 might see long yields explode to the upside and create havoc for public borrowing.

4) BRIC countries will continue to have issues, expect growth to come from these countries into 2010.

5) Deflation will level off, but the risk of inflation should not be a problem in 2009.

6) As part of the obamaNation package, see Dr. Vlado's "National Debt Reset Day" deliberated on the hill. To stem the fall of housing (and MBS tied to them) and the potential for more failures form the option arm reset market topping out in 2010 - Zip codes will have assigned NEW debt markdowns of up to 50% with new nationized rates of interests. Tax credits to offset for those who have kept up payments will be given. Keep the homes OFF the auction market and that will be the start to the bottom of the RE market. 2009 will be the bottom for now in many RE markets, others may reach 1997 levels. RE will not come back for several years.

7) Equity markets should make new lows into the 3rd QTR 2009, dow targets into the 7K region. Bears will be frustrated that we won't fall as hard as fundamentals may warrant.

8) Obama will be tested in the first part of the year.
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