Spiga

Getting ready to trade oil

Putting on my speculative trading hat, i am seeing I nice short opportunity in the crude complex. How to trade? I might use the puts on IXCRJ. Ishares, S&P Global energy has some 150 June puts available in the 8 dollar range. BS models show small pure premium pricing here, so i might enter this trade in the AM. Longer term, I am still bullish on Crush as per the previous post for several reasons, but here is one that is from MSN news.

Exxon Mobile has falling production, on a near and long term range. All true. There were short-term, one-time reasons for production to fall in the first quarter of 2008. But don't conclude that ExxonMobil's problems are limited to that quarter. All the evidence argues that the company will report lower oil and natural-gas production for all of 2008, even though new projects are scheduled to come on line in the second half of the year. Looking just at oil, the company's production will not grow at all through 2012.

The company also reduced its projections for annual production to 4.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2012 from the 4.8 million barrels a day in 2011 that it projected a year ago. Just further evidence that ExxonMobil has a production problem.

Granted you have Indian, Chinese, and Russian companies entering the fray to help stem that tide, but it seems as though they will be busy servicing the local growing markets first, markets that are not even 10% of the lifestyle of America.

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