Spiga

Bull v Bear Dow 12,100




Its been many years since i last sat watching the ticker tape (tick by tick). Today I watch it with special interest. As bearish as I have been for the last few years with equities and the financial markets in general, what is taking place today is especially important. Technically, if we loose 12K (dow) and start the momentum down, more chaos will ensue.

Those trying to find a bullish case for the markets ARE CRAZY. WMT's numbers are strong only becouse the tapped out retailer is buying down. And eventually, (when the tape has already turned - buy rumor, sell fact) Walmart will turn in softer numbers. Many financials, as well as many of the commodities and the dollar are very close to transition numbers. If the market falls, it will break the dollar below the prized 100 yen, which will spike up oil and gold et al. even higher... and depress the situation even further

Credit Spreads are very wide and many of today's headlines are indicative of how bad things are currently (and not getting better)

Household net worth falls 3.6% in 4th quarter.
Household equity in their homes fell to a record low 47.9% of home values. This year, for the first time ever, the bank or lender owns more of the house than the occupant does. Household assets fell by $308 billion to stand at $72.1 trillion, while liabilities rose $226 billion to $14.4 trillion. (ONM - The problem with pricing assets is they are only worth the price someone can borrow to take on title)

Visa looks to Go IPO (ONM - The bank cash out...)

and generally the spreads on commercial vs. govt paper are as wide as they have been at any time in recent past... If we break on the downside, look for a retest of the intraday 11.6 Dow support level to come quickly.. Otherwise we may go sideways another month with a rally and then another smash down into the summer early fall session. We either die here or hold this level for the next 45 days before a new low is made.

PPT is really working overtime to keep these technical levels.... VERY HARD And my guess is that those NFP numbers are going to be as cooked as a Thanks Giving turkey.

Where is Ron Paul when you need him? I supposed the the penguin deserves a novice like Obama



0 comments:

footerads