Spiga

Interest-only' loans. Borrowed time??

In California, the traditional fixed-rate loan is in danger of becoming extinct. According to recent LoanPerformance data, the percentage of new loans that are adjustable in Santa Cruz and San Diego was 85%; in Oakland 84%; in Santa Rosa 81%; in Los Angeles 74%.

In 2001, as the current housing boom got underway, fewer than 2% of California homes were bought with interest-only loans, according to an analysis done for The Times by LoanPerformance, a San Francisco mortgage research firm.

Confronted with soaring home prices, Californians are adopting a "buy now, pay later" strategy on a massive scale. The boom in interest-only loans — nearly half the state's home buyers used them last year, up from virtually none in 2001— is the engine behind California's surging home prices.

When the price of houses in California soared 17% in 2003 and 22% in 2004, a curious thing happened: Instead of home ownership decreasing because fewer people could afford houses, it rose to record levels.

The Federal Reserve regularly queries banks about whether they're tightening or loosening
credit standards for home mortgages. In four of the last five quarters, standards were loosened. The combined drop was the biggest in more than a decade.

Meanwhile, the range of home mortgage products keeps expanding. Some lenders offer mortgages that are spread over four decades rather than three. Others extend the interest-only period to 10 or 15 years, or offer programs allowing those who have what is called "difficult to document" incomes to put only 5% down.

"A few years ago, you would have had to go to an infomercial to get the kind of deals we're offering now," Wells Fargo home mortgage consultant Jimmy Kang told a group of new real estate agents last week.

Dr. Vlado concurs with this article and believes the bubble will burst within the next two years and cause havoc in the US Financial System. I believe the great danger actually lies within the year 2012....

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